Good Monday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Equities are down to start the new month which is not terribly unexpected.

September is typically not kind to the equity markets. Despite the economic data released today which was very bond friendly, the bond market is mostly flat. We have a lot of data this week with the biggest release of the month (I guess really the second biggest release as the FOMC meeting on 9/18 will be the biggest) the jobs report, being released on Friday.

I think we are likely to trade sideways/leak a little until then.

Friday will help confirm the direction/breadth of the Fed’s cut. The markets have already priced in a little more than a .25% cut in September and roughly 100bps through the rest of the year. If the jobs report comes in weak, bets the Fed will cut .50% will increase and rates will improve further. I think until Friday, we are range-bound and I don’t ever recommend floating into a big news event.

Stay safe and make today great!