Good Morning on this fantastic Wednesday and best day of the week,
No data today (there is a 10-yr treasury auction in just a bit) but the recent neutral commentary from the Fed as well as some weaker data from last week has given bonds a gradual journey down the yield curve. The 10yr is now teetering at 4.00% and I do believe we can close below it today. It is all a set up for the inflation data we will get tomorrow and Friday (at 5:30 am and before rates are set). I very rarely will float loans through CPI, PPI, non-farm payrolls, and the Personal consumption numbers. Floating through them is gambling not only on the data but also the market reaction. Keep in mind that CPI just keeps getting better and better, which is awesome, but bonds aren’t responding. The expectations are low for inflation tomorrow (.2%). I would say if we get these numbers, we can really, at least for now, announce victory against inflation but how will the market react?
I was reading the below piece this am and could only think of watching a train wreck in slow motion…
U.S. credit card debt topped $1 trillion in the second quarter, a fresh record that reflects rising consumer spending alongside elevated inflation. Credit card balances rose $45 billion to $1.03 trillion in the April to June period, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said.
More debt means rising delinquencies…
Rising balances may present challenges for some borrowers, and the resumption of student loan payments this fall may add additional financial strain for many student loan borrowers.
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!