Good Thursday AM,
A little bit of data today.
Durable goods orders were weak and unemployment claims were a little stronger. Very muted reaction to the data as all eyes are focused on the big meeting in Jackson Hole. Lots of speculation on what Mr Powell is going to say tomorrow. It is hard to imagine Mr. Powell pivoting to say something dovish but he is going to have to at some point. Maybe he will (and the best we can likely hope for) is that he says something about the Fed pausing to let the effects of the past 500 basis points of rate hikes be full felt in the market. It is clear the economy has slowed but I don’t think it is going to be enough for the Fed to say their work is done. Markets could rally over his speech, but that has not been the case for a very long time and I don’t see many reasons to float into tomorrow.
A few pieces from around…
U.S. job growth has been just a little softer than initially reported. The Labor Department’s preliminary benchmark revision—which incorporates more complete payroll data and was released Wednesday—subtracted 306,000, or about 0.2%, of all jobs for the year through March 2023. The new estimate would take payroll gains from April 2022 through March 2023 to a monthly average of 312,00, down slightly from 337,000 before the revision. The new figures will be finalized and incorporated into monthly jobs data early next year.
Western economies are slowing, according to surveys out Wednesday, as high prices and rising interest rates curtail demand. S&P Global Market Intelligence surveys of purchasing managers showed manufacturing activity broadly contracting while service-sector activity retreated in Europe and the U.K., and expanded at a slower pace in the U.S. S&P economist Chris Williamson warned that the broader deterioration in business conditions could quickly spill into the U.S. labor market: “Hiring could…soon turn into job shedding in the coming months after a near-stagnation of employment in August.”
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!