Good Monday AM,

Some short and direct insight from Dan Rawitch today. Bonds are pulling back a bit, but for no good reason. The chart looks like the price may slide sideways for a couple of sessions. The biggest news this week is Housing Starts. While that number is typically not a market mover, watching is essential. Builders tend to pull in their horns just before the economy sinks. There is now more talk on the streets about recession than about inflation. Google searches are now twice as many for recession. The FED can forget a soft landing. He must decide just how much destruction is willing to inflict on the economy and the markets. Many believe the tightening phase will end this year. I am in that camp! This was a great graphic to share. While the headline reads Rate Hike Expectations Are Soaring… look at how the red line has dropped substantially just in the last three days and how the green line has increased.

This tells the story of rates moderating and retreating in the short and medium term.

Please remain safe and stay healthy.