Good Monday morning from your Hometown Lender,

The Bond market is on its heels again today.

After the 10-year note last week hit a low yield since April of 4.20%, rates have popped back up. 4.20% was a strong line of resistance and when we failed to break through, traders became discouraged and the yield often starts heading up toward the higher end of the same trading channel. That is where we are today with the 10-year yield at 4.487%. Yields/rates are up .25% in the last week.

I don’t think there is anything to be concerned with on a broader scale as we expect rates to be capped with the Fed asserting the next move will be lower. This week is short with the bond market closing earlier on Wednesday and closed on Thursday for the holiday. The first week of the month always brings important data culminating with the Jobs report on the first Friday. The jobs report has not been our friend over the last few months. If you recall, the last report printed 272k new jobs on expectations of 175k.. this month, expectations are for 180k new jobs having been created.

I thought the below graph was an interesting read…

The takeaway (to me) is that as rates moderate, it becomes a self-fulfilling event. Lower rates beget even lower rates (we have all certainly felt the same impact as rates headed up). That the timeline is pegged at March of 2025 is the most encouraging part to me.

Stay safe and make today great!