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Market Snapshot 6.18.24- A Better Day

Good Tuesday morning from your Hometown Lender,

Licking our wounds from yesterday. Today is a better day.

Bonds sold off yesterday for no real good reason other than markets now, too, may need to keep seeing softening data to allow for yields to improve further. Today we got softer data with retail sales much weaker than expected. The ten-year note yield is now at 4.23% and mortgage bonds are better as well. I am hopeful we continue to trend down toward that 4.15% yield on the ten-year note. That is the next line in the sand. If we can trade to there and then through it, rates will improve at least another .25%

The U.S. Census Bureau released estimates showing that married-couple households made up 47 percent of all households in 2022, down from 71 percent in 1970. Homeownership percentages have stayed relatively stable… Well in 1970, 10.9% of the population was married. Now we are below 7%. That is at least part of the reason. 34.5% of all properties in the US are rentals. Speaking of which, 41% of households in Nevada rent. That is an interesting statistic to explore and market. On that note, Encouraged by a tough housing market that is keeping renters in place and strong job growth, landlords are raising rents. Rising rents complicate the inflation picture and could make it challenging for the Fed to ease interest rates. While most analysts say the pace of shelter inflation should decline further this year, some apartment landlords are signaling that the worst of the rent slowdown is already behind them.

Last, on being bullish for bonds, the WSJ shared, Signs of cooling inflation have driven a furious bond rally this month. It has lifted stocks to records and promises to give some life to the listless housing market. The sharp rise in bond prices has pushed down the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note by nearly a half percentage point since late May. The yield, which is a key benchmark for mortgage rates, notched its largest two-week decline of the year through June 14 and settled Monday at 4.277%. The trend could continue if May’s retail sales data comes in lighter than expected later Tuesday morning. Economists polled by the Journal expect sales rose 0.2% from April on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Stay safe and make today great!