Good Morning on this best day of the week Wednesday,
A holding pattern appears to be underway as investors assess the outlook for Fed policy. US equity futures languished, while stocks in Europe inched up, and Asia was steady. The dollar pushed up and oil climbed on signs the gasoline supply crunch is worsening. The 10-yr is stable at 2.76% on very weak Durable Goods readings.
Traders are dialing back expectations for rate hikes after ugly US econ data yesterday. They’re now pricing in 134 basis points of increases over the next three meetings, down from 141 earlier this week. The minutes from the last Fed gathering, due later, may help shape opinions about policy action and the path of inflation.
Recession angst is rising fast, as signaled by a shift in the choreography between stocks and bonds.
What’s happening: A flurry of Wall Street research points out that when 10-year Treasury yields hit 3%, equities and fixed income stopped moving in unison—shares kept falling while bonds bounced.
What does it mean: A pattern in which stocks drop and bonds hold firm often prevails when anxious investors are cashing in risky assets and seeking havens in a weakening economy. It also suggests growth is replacing inflation as the bigger fear.
The silver lining: With the concerted selloff over, at least for now, Treasuries can act as a cushion for investors nursing equity losses.
Despite rising rates, inventory is staying low (very low 1.1months)
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great.