You are currently viewing Market Snapshot 4.24.23- Recession Watch Continues

Market Snapshot 4.24.23- Recession Watch Continues

Good Monday AM,

I hope the weekend was fantastic.

Bonds are staging a MINI rally and I do mean mini at this point. I do not expect a very large move until we start seeing some of the big news come out this week, which is a huge week. We will see GDP, the first read of the first quarter, Consumer Confidence, PCE, durable orders and more. We could see very big swings in both directions this week. My hope is that the PCE numbers come in low, just as the other inflation numbers have. If this happens, we should see the ten-year retest 3.25 and if it breaks below that, 3 percent is both possible and likely. For now, be very careful because every day this week has an important news event.

Is the price of landscaping worth it?

Well, a study by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Bureau of Business Research found that, nationwide, trees collectively add more than $31.5 billion of value to private homes each year. The research, which was sponsored by the nonprofit Arbor Day Foundation and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Forest Service, also says neighborhood trees provide more than $73 billion worth of environmental benefits yearly. To top it off, the business of growing, selling, planting and maintaining our trees employs more than a half-million people and has an economic benefit of $35 billion.

Corporate insiders raced to buy shares of their own companies after last month’s banking crisis, signaling a vote of confidence in this year’s market rebound.

More than 1,000 officers and directors at more than 600 companies bought their own stock in March. That is the highest number on an individual and company basis since last May, according to the Washington Service, an insider-trading data analytics provider. The ratio of insider buying to selling last month swelled to the highest level since September, the firm found.

Recession watch continues.

I continue to mention recession to create some confirm with the notion, not fear. A recession is a normal part of the economic cycle and one in which our industry (housing and lending) can outperform. Below is a picture worth 1000 words (the top caption in particular).

Busy week for data heading into next week’s fed meeting. If we don’t see volatility in the beginning of the week (which I do), I am confident we will see some elevated volatility at the end of the week with the highlighted info below being the drivers. Markets expect a 2.5% GDP reading for Q1.. that seems high to me but I am not one of those bean counters.

The Census Bureau reports new-home sales for March. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 632,000 new single-family homes sold, slightly fewer than in February.

The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for April. Consensus estimate is for a 104.1 reading, about even with the March data.S&P CoreLogic releases its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for February. Expectations are for home prices to be flat year over year.

S&P CoreLogic releases its Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for February. Expectations are for home prices to be flat year over year.

The Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for March. New orders for manufactured durable goods are expected to increase 0.7% month over month to a seasonally adjusted $270 billion.

The Commerce Department releases its preliminary estimate of first-quarter gross-domestic-product growth. The consensus call is for GDP to have grown at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8%, following a 2.6% increase in the fourth quarter, and 2.1% for all of 2022.

The Commerce Department reports personal income and outlays for March. Income is forecast to increase 0.2% month over month, while spending is seen declining 0.1%. This compares with gains of 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, in February. The core personal-consumption expenditures price index is expected to increase 4.5% from a year earlier, one-tenth of a percentage point less than previously.

Please remain safe and stay healthy, enjoy the weekend, and first, make today great.