Good Thursday AM,
Bonds having a good day on some weaker than expected data
Initial Weekly Claims in at 245K on expectations of 240K and the dismal Philly Fed Mfg reading at -31.3 on expectation of an already disastrous -19.2. Additionally, some Fedspeak out late yesterday and today on how the banking sector will drag the economy as credit continues to tighten. Keep in mind we are also seeing normal trading patterns where once we hit support, we head back to resistance. We likely have another .125% better in rate to come as we head back up the current trading channel (in price so lower rates).
For the first time, more than half of millennials own a home. The millennial homeownership rate hit 51.5% in 2022, US Census data show. It’s been a slog to get there for the generation that came of age during the financial crisis — by age 30, 42% of millennials owned their homes compared to 48% of Gen X and more than half of baby boomers.
India’s monsoons are an essential economic indicator for a country that relies on rainfall to feed 1.4 billion people. A poor season can topple governments and threaten global food security. U.S. and Australian forecasts now point to an increased probability of an El Niño episode in 2023. El Niño is a periodic weather event that drives monsoon clouds away from India—and has historically hurt food production. A subpar monsoon is an underappreciated threat to global food security and inflation.
Who knew this was one more thing to worry about? My plate of worries is getting full.
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!