Good Monday AM,

We touched the first level of Fibonacci on the 10-yr note which is a yield of 3.91%.

That is the good news. The bad news is that we were rejected at the level and the yield jumped to 3.96%. Still, the stochastics are suggesting more decline in the yield is probable. Mortgage Bonds also touched a key level but couldn’t push through. We are back in the range we have been in since Feb 21. There is not much news until Friday and likely there is not too much risk floating until then.

Ironic piece from the WSJ on the Fed remodeling their DC office space to the tune of 2.5B (with a B). I am not saying it is excessive (despite the price tag) just that the Fed is finding itself subject to the same stresses we see in the residential arena. What Will Be Harder for the Fed? Taming Inflation or Its Office Renovation Expenses? – WSJ

A picture says 1000 words.

This picture certainly does. Want to know why we are in such financial turmoil? Look at the debt as a percentage of GDP and recognize that while it used to take 20 cents to generate $1 in GDP, today it takes $4 in debt to raise the same $1. How does that make sense let alone how can it be sustainable?

Relatively slow week for news and I’m sharing the most important daily happenings.

Fingers crossed Mr. Powell is not too hawkish tomorrow.

Tuesday
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on the central bank’s monetary policy.

Wednesday
The Commerce Department reports on U.S. exports and imports in January. The U.S. posted its largest trade deficit on record last year. For the full year, imports exceeded exports by $948.1 billion, a 12.2% wider trade deficit from 2021.

Mr. Powell testifies before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee.

The Labor Department releases January data on job openings, quits and layoffs. Openings jumped to 11 million in December, but private-sector measures of job postings have shown a steep decline in recent months.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics releases February figures on inflation. Consumer prices in China rose 2.1% in January from a year earlier, a faster pace than December’s 1.8% rise.

The Bank of Canada announces its latest interest-rate decision.

Thursday
The Labor Department reports the number of worker filings for unemployment benefits in the week ended March 4. Initial jobless claims have remained at low levels for several months despite layoffs at large companies.

The Bank of Japan announces its latest monetary-policy decision. Kazuo Ueda, the Japanese government’s nominee to lead the central bank, said he believes the benefits of monetary easing are bigger than the costs.

Friday
The Labor Department reports on the state of the U.S. labor market in February, including the level of payrolls, the unemployment rate and average weekly earnings. Employers added a robust 517,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low of 3.4%.

Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!