Good Thursday AM from your Hometown Lender,

A little bit of data today and none of it helpful for bonds.

GDP revisions were higher than expected, Unemployment Claims are lower than expected, and Consumer Sentiment was higher than expected. Not doing too much damage though, and the 10-yr note has actually improved. That’s more of a technical trade as we work towards a strong line of resistance. We are here now at 4.18%-4.19% and if we don’t break through, we are likely going to head back up to retest 4.32%. I don’t think we have the momentum to break through today, and with markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday, should the PCE come in weak (fingers crossed), no one will be around to trade the news. It will be next week before we see the market reaction. That, along with Fed Governor Waller’s comments yesterday that “there is no rush to cut interest rates and recent economic data warrants delaying or reducing the number of reductions seen this year,” makes me think locking today is a good idea for anything closing in the next two weeks. Waller added that he’d want to see “at least a couple months of better inflation data” before cutting, while also noting the strong economy and robust hiring as further reasons to wait.

Former cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced Thursday to 25 years behind bars for his role in perpetrating one of the largest financial crimes in U.S. history. I would say that is an end to this saga, but the FTX bankruptcy still proceeds and Sam Bankman Fried now sentenced, can appeal. This will go on for a long time. It is encouraging though that recent reports indicate that all stakeholders in FTX will be made whole. I don’t recall another bankruptcy where the injured parties were made whole.

Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!