Good Thursday AM,
Feeling sick this am as the selloff continues.
The ten-year has now skyrocketed to 4.08 and at this point, will likely test 4.11. Mortgage bonds are also on sale breaking down to worst levels since November. The news was nothing of significance, at least during more normal periods, but today the higher wage date was released at a time when the market had already been selling due to inflation in the Euro zone. Remain cautious. It is too soon to know whether we have found bottom. It is likely that we have not.
Really good piece in the WSJ today on how the Fed looks at inflation.
Fed Might Be Winning Inflation Fight, Depending on Index Used
Two measures of U.S. inflation are now telling a similar story. But those measures are likely to diverge this year, with one signaling the Federal Reserve’s work is nearly done and the other suggesting the opposite. Markets are now betting that inflation, as measured by the 12-month change in the consumer-price index, will fall to about 2.8% by October, from 6.4% in January. Normally, CPI inflation runs a bit higher than the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Commerce Department’s personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. But differences in how the two indexes are constructed mean the historical wedge might shrink or even invert as CPI inflation comes down much faster than PCE inflation. That could make it hard for the Fed to explain to the public why it is holding interest rates high, Gwynn Guilford reports.
And last, here is a table of how long people stay in their homes by age. Tells us who our target markets are…
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!