Good Monday AM,
The market is still reeling from the insane jobs report we got on Friday.
It makes no sense that the Fed jobs numbers should be 5 times better than the ADP numbers. Also, with all of the layoffs that are being announced, it is even more difficult for me to get my mind around Friday’s report. The market unfortunately is believing the number and bonds are tanking. It is hard to call the bottom of this move. We know we broke below support on the ten-year note 3.50% and have now moved to a second support level 3.63%.
If it holds we may have a shot at retracing back to the first support level of and then if we are really lucky, we will fill that huge gap that was created at the open this morning. At the moment, these charts look bad, and I would not hold my breath. We cannot call the bottom of this move yet.
Well timing is everything and despite an angry move higher in rates, the WSJ shared some positive news on housing.
Falling mortgage rates are beginning to stir demand in the housing market. The average 30-year home loan rate has come down by just about a full percentage point from a 20-year high above 7% in November, largely in response to signs that the Federal Reserve is nearly finished lifting rates. That has brought some new buyers into the market. Mortgage applications are up by about a quarter since the end of last year. A measure of signed real-estate contracts rose in December after six months of declines. And the number of people contacting real-estate agents to start the buying process has rebounded, according to brokerage Redfin Corp.’s internal data
Two charts on remodeling (good industry info, some of it inapplicable depending on locations):
That’s all for now.
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!