Good Monday morning on this fantastic day from your Hometown Lender,

Last week saw rates remain unchanged, with almost no volatility from day to day. Friday’s breaking news that SCOTUS had struck down the Trump tariffs had no effect on mortgage bonds or rates, and likely won’t this week either.

Rates are pushing up against the next trading channel lower and until we can break into it, could be close to capped out. There’s nothing on the economic calendar today, and the headlines will continue to revolve around the tariffs for at least another few days.

Market Analysis – from a higher level:

Market Analysis – Quick Snapshot

Markets (late morning ET): Stocks down ~1% on renewed tariff uncertainty; “risk-off” vibe (gold up, yields down).
10-year Treasury: ~4.03%–4.07% (down on the day).
2-year Treasury: ~3.48% (roughly steady).
Mortgage rates (Freddie Mac, latest weekly): 30-yr 6.01%, 15-yr 5.35%.
Inflation (latest CPI, Jan 2026): +2.4% YoY, core +2.5% YoY.
Housing (latest NAR, Jan 2026): 3.91M SAAR sales; 3.7 months supply; median $396,800.

1) Market Analysis – What Hit This Morning (CPI)

No new CPI print today, but three rate-movers mattered:

Tariffs are back in the driver’s seat: After the Supreme Court struck down broad tariffs, the White House announced a new temporary 15% tariff using different authority (Trade Act), spiking uncertainty.
Fed Waller turned “coin flip” for March: He framed a March cut as basically 50/50, emphasizing the next jobs report as the swing factor.
Manufacturing/business pulse (latest “flash” PMIs for Feb): Growth is still expanding, but slowing (manufacturing and services both cooled).

Narrative you can use:
“Inflation is cooling versus last year, but today’s market is trading policy uncertainty more than economic certainty. When tariffs make headlines, bonds usually hear ‘growth risk’ and ‘inflation risk’ at the same time… which is why rates can chop even on a down-yield day.”

2) Fed Watch

Waller’s message: March depends on labor data; if the January strength repeats, the Fed can pause—if not, a cut is back on the table.
Quiet-but-important wrinkle: Waller also flagged that employment data may be overstated and could face revisions—markets hate revisions almost as much as they hate surprise taxes.
Macro backdrop: Q4 GDP slowed to 1.4% annualized (shutdown drag), while inflation signals stayed sticky enough to keep the Fed cautious.

3) Market Analysis – Where Mortgage Rates Actually Are

Freddie Mac baseline: 30-yr fixed 6.01%, 15-yr 5.35% (best level since 2022 per commentary around the release).
Why rate sheets aren’t magically in the 5s for everyone: The 10-year is still hovering around ~4.0% and markets are whipsawing on trade-policy headlines.
What to tell borrowers: We’re in a “low-6s world” with occasional dips—great for activity, but still sensitive to macro shocks.

4) Housing Market Check

Existing-home sales (Jan): 3.91M SAAR, median $396,800, 3.7 months supply.
Pending sales (Jan): -0.8% MoM, -0.4% YoY—still cautious, but not collapsing.
The real story: Inventory remains the choke point. Rates help, but supply is still the boss in the room.

5) Market Analysis – Political Backdrop & Fed Independence

Today’s market mood was basically: “Tariffs: The Sequel.”

The Supreme Court curtailed broad tariff authority, and the administration pivoted quickly to a new temporary tariff framework—so investors are pricing uncertainty, not resolution.
Markets reaction: Stocks down, Treasuries up, gold up—classic “hide under the desk but keep trading” day.
Fed angle: Waller explicitly downplayed tariffs as the primary March driver vs the labor report—but acknowledged the policy fog.

6) What This All Means for Rates Going Forward (three-scenario grid)

Scenario	What has to happen	Rate implication
1) Disinflation + calmer policy	CPI trend holds near ~2.4% YoY, tariffs stabilize, growth remains “meh-but-ok.”	10y drifts lower, mortgages grind lower (more consistent high-5/low-6 opportunities)
2) Base case: chop + headlines	Mixed data (slower growth, uneven inflation) + tariff uncertainty continues.	Range-bound rates; lenders price defensively; intraday volatility stays annoying
3) Inflation/policy shock	Tariffs broaden, inflation expectations pop, or growth surprises higher.	Yields back up, mortgages re-test mid-6s

7) Market Analysis – Practical Takeaways

This is a better setup than last year: Rates are lower and that alone improves affordability and confidence.
But… policy noise is real: Tariff uncertainty can delay decisions (and widen rate volatility) even when fundamentals are improving.
For buyers: More leverage than 2024–2025, but still a “house-by-house” market—condition and pricing discipline matter.

8) Lock vs Float

Closing 30–60+ days: Float with rules (clear trigger points). If the next jobs print supports cuts, you may get better windows
Closing in 7–21 days: I lean lock. Today is exactly why—markets can re-price fast on policy headlines.

Stay safe and make today great!