Good Monday AM from your Hometown Lender,
Can you believe we are in the final full week of the year?
It has been a long year. I think most have felt it but the holidays snuck up and in the blink of an eye, they are here and gone.
There is some housekeeping to do before the new year.
This week we have a full slate of data and news that will guide the market into 2025. Tomorrow we have Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, NAHB index, and the start of the FOMC meeting. Wednesday is the day to watch the FOMC meeting decision and subsequent fireside chat with Chairman Powell. I expect the Fed to cut .25 and to signal a pause. With that markets may sell off. Thursday brings GDP, Philly Fed Manufacturing data, Unemployment Claims, and Existing Home Sales. Friday wraps up with the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the PCE. Or what it is worth, I think the Fed will have an advance look at PCE to include in their Wednesday decision and commentary
On top of all of this…
We have the Banks of Japan and England also meeting and also expected to cut rates. The Geopolitics are also busy with among other things, the German Chancellor losing his vote of confidence this morning and how the world is going to address the rebels now in charge in Syria.
Projections for the 2025 market are all over the place.
The AP shared a piece this am that follows my current thoughts:
The biggest wildcard for mortgage rates next year is whether President-elect Donald Trump’s major policy initiatives will end up driving inflation and the national debt higher, which could keep mortgage rates elevated. That’s because what happens with inflation, the U.S. deficit, and the economy can influence moves in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to price home loans. Mortgage rates could drop to the low-6% range if the economy weakens or if plans for tariffs and tax cuts are dialed back, according to the forecast with a couple of forecasts are more optimistic about how low the average rate on a 30-year mortgage will go in 2025. Fitch Ratings sees it ranging from 5.8% to 6.4%, while TD Economics predicts the average rate will drop to 5.8% by the end of the year.
The time to buy is really, now as prices will go up and the path of rates is uncertain.
Stay safe and make today great!
