Good Wednesday PM on this best day of the week,
As a follow up from yesterday’s latest JOLTS survey, which showed further cooling in the labor market.
Today’s ADP payroll report was dismal. 103k new jobs created on expectations of 130 (which was a dismal forecast on its own). If you are wondering whether the labor market is slowing, you are the only one. The signs are clear, and I am including a couple of snippets on it below. As employment cools (employment is the last shoe to drop in a downward economic cycle) Rate-cut bets are increasing. throughout global markets. In Europe, traders are now fully pricing in six quarter-point rate cuts by the European Central Bank in 2024 for the first time. If traders are right, the ECB would be the first among major central banks to cut rates next year, followed by the Fed’s first move lower in May. In the UK, markets are pricing three Bank of England cuts starting in June.
The hot labor market that underpinned a surprisingly strong economy this year is showing signs of cooling.
The number of available jobs at the end of October was the lowest since March 2021, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Fewer openings come as the unemployment rate has edged higher this year and Americans are taking longer to find new jobs, Austen Hufford writes.
The job openings rate has trended down this year while the unemployment rate moved up. The relationship between the two readings—an economics concept known as the Beveridge curve—has moved close to prepandemic readings after trending well higher for the past two and half years. That adds to signs the labor market is normalizing.
The November jobs report, out Friday, will offer additional clues on the state of the labor market.
Please remain safe and stay healthy, make today great!