Good Monday AM and Happy Thanksgiving Week,

Kids are off from school and markets are already thinning out. Light volume does not typically work well for bonds and today is no different. Not seeing much movement but are seeing a little leakage. The only data set today was Leading Economic Indicators, expected at -.6 (negative, so think about that), came in at -.8 (even worse). Still bonds (treasuries and mortgages are worse). Not much to worry about, but I think we will likely see some small incremental losses most of the week. Bond market is closed Thursday and closes early Friday but most trading is done by noon tomorrow.

Would a 50% raise make you happy?

People are often convinced their lives would improve if only they could climb a few rungs on the income ladder. Exactly how much more money do we think we need to be happy? In a new survey from the financial-services company Empower, most people said it would take a pretty significant pay bump to deliver contentment—almost 50%. The reality: According to consulting firm Mercer, employers are planning on an average pay increase of 3.9% in 2024 for nonunion employees.

And if you are in residential real estate and want to feel better about yourself, commercial real estate continues to be the red headed step child. Lots of attention in today’s news (SVB apartment loans are going for auction at pennies on the dollar). Below is another snippet on the commercial sector.

The office sector’s credit crunch is intensifying. By one measure, it’s now worse than during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Only one out of every three securitized office mortgages that expired during the first nine months of 2023 was paid off by the end of September, according to Moody’s Analytics. That is the smallest share for the first nine months of any year since at least 2008. The reason: Many office owners can’t pay back their old loans because they can’t get new mortgages.

Please remain safe and stay healthy, Happy Thanksgiving week and, make today great!