Good Thursday AM,

Bonds are back on the upswing today.

Higher prices mean lower rates. The 10-yr is back to 4.44% which is great to see, and rates are more than half point lower than where they were just two weeks ago. The economic data released today confirmed the economy is slowing and certainly helped.

Not much more data this week.

Mortgage bonds are trading above the 10, 25, 50, and 100 day moving averages. That does not happen often and has not happened since May. With the holiday next week, I would expect markets to leak a bit. No urgency to lock, but I do think today is a good day to consider locking if you are closing within the next 15 days. If not, there is not much risk to floating from what I see as I type.

• Initial Weekly Jobless Claims 231K vs 220K
• Philly Fed Mfg -5.9 vs -9
• Import Price MOM -0.8 vs -0.3
• Industrial Production -0.6 vs -0.3
• Cap Utilization 78.9 vs 79.4

Two quick hits on the economy…

U.S. Retail Sales Fall for First Time Since March as Holiday Season Approaches

Consumers cut their spending at car dealerships, gas stations and other stores last month, tapping the brakes on economic growth ahead of the holiday shopping season. U.S. retail sales fell 0.1% in October from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said. That is the first decline since March and comes after a 0.9% increase in September and robust gains earlier in the summer. The retail figures, combined with slower hiring and easing inflation, indicate that the economy is cooling after surprisingly strong growth much of this year.

The Global Fight Against Inflation Has Turned a Corner

Inflation is falling faster than expected across advanced economies, marking a turning point in central banks’ two-year battle against surging prices. Declines in consumer price growth are fueling expectations that central banks could take their feet off the brakes and pivot to cutting interest rates next year. That would provide welcome relief to a global economy that is struggling outside the U.S., increasing the prospects of a soft landing from a historic series of interest-rate increases without large increases in unemployment.

Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!