Good Friday AM,
The 10-yr treasury broke through 5% last night.
I can continue to say I am amazed by how the market is acting but not sure those words mean much now. Here is a picture of how that 10-yr note has acted since May… we are looking for red days where the yield (rate) goes down. Not many of those.
The 10-yr has pulled back a bit to 4.96% but that doesn’t mean much. A nothing burger on the economic calendar today. If we are looking for some positive news, one Fed member, Harker, mentioned that inflation is slowing faster than expected and the economy is softening. However, another Fed member had a different opinion, stating that the Fed won’t ease until next year. Still uncertain if this is the bottom, but if it is, there’s a good chance we’ll see an increase in prices.
Next week is important with GDP and durable orders data coming out.
Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Powell yesterday suggested the run-up in long-term Treasury yields could allow the central bank to suspend a historic run of interest-rate increases so long as recent progress on inflation continues. Powell’s remarks closely tracked those of colleagues who indicated in recent days that they would hold short-term interest rates steady at their next meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. That is in part because the swift rise in long-term rates over the past month could slow the economy, effectively substituting for another Fed hike, Nick Timiraos writes.
Not much more to share today.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!