Good Monday AM, I hope you had a fantastic weekend,
It’s never a straight line up or down, right?
Lots of what the market perceived as strong economic data last week with Friday’s jobs report doing the most damage, pushed the 10yr note up to 4.05%. Today with no economic data released, bonds have got a bid again (equities are marginally improving as well). The 10yr note is down to 3.97%. 4% is a psychological level. The technical level is closer to 3.97%. It’s promising to be below 4% again and if we can close below 3.97%, that should be a catalyst to further improving rates. Market sentiment is volatile. We do get inflation data both Thursday with CPI and Friday with PPI. Those will both be market movers.
On the subject of market sentiment, here is what is driving trading today..
“There are no sure things in markets, but many investors believe high-quality U.S. bonds are currently pretty close. The consensus on Wall Street is that interest rates have peaked for this economic cycle. Traders in futures markets are betting the Federal Reserve will likely lower rates at its meeting March 20, followed by another four or five quarter-point cuts throughout the year. WSJ’s Eric Wallerstein looks at why that would be good for bonds—and why there is still some mystery around bond prices.”
And this is interesting…
America’s offices are emptier than at any point in at least four decades, reflecting years of overbuilding and shifting work habits that were accelerated by the pandemic. A staggering 19.6% of office space in major U.S. cities wasn’t leased as of the fourth quarter, according to Moody’s Analytics, up from 18.8% a year earlier. That is slightly above the previous records of 19.3% set in 1986 and 1991 and the highest number since at least 1979, which is as far back as Moody’s data go. What happens to these buildings? Many will re-trade at muck lower values to be converted.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!