Good Wednesday AM,
Bonds started the day in the red but have since turned around and bond pricing is now in the black pushing yields a bit lower. The 10yr had breached 4% earlier and has since done a 180 degree change with the yield currently at 3.90%. I do love that we have a lot more room to improve. The question on timing will be driven by this week’s data. Economic reports picked up a little steam today with the more important reports still to come. The Jolts report (job openings and labor turnover) showed fewer job openings that expected. The WSJ did a small piece on it..
Employers finished 2023 with far fewer open positions than at the start of the year, according to private-sector estimates, as businesses filled more jobs and decided not to hire for others. Total job postings as of the end of 2023 declined more than 15% from a year earlier, according to data from job-listing site Indeed. Job postings are still up by more than a quarter from their prepandemic levels, but the frenzied hiring and worker shortages that marked an earlier phase of the pandemic recovery are fading, Gabriel T. Rubin and Harriet Torry report.
We also and more importantly, had the minutes of the last Fed meeting released. They showed the Fed is expected to cut rates however, the path is still unclear. Markets after a quick drop seem to have become comfortable with the minutes.
Tomorrow brings the ADP payrolls and Unemployment claims.
Some volatility is likely. Friday is the jobs report and volatility is almost a certainty. I don’t know that floating into Friday is advisable unless you have time to allow the market to settle should the report be stronger than expected.
Causing more stress on inventory, the National Association of Home Builders estimates that roughly 10% of new housing construction is destined for build-to-rent.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!