Good Thursday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Biggest data day of the week so far and we had a mix of news.

The ECB as expected, left rates on hold. Not much commentary on the future of rates from ECB President Lagarde yet. Unemployment claims came in a bit higher than expected, which is good for bonds, however GDP also came in higher and that’s not good for bonds. Durable goods were weak and the 7-yr Treasury Auction which just completed, was healthy. All in all, maybe bonds would improve a little. We are seeing that now. I think the improvement is a combination of the data as well as hitting technical lines of resistance and bouncing off them.

Tomorrow is a bigger deal for with PCE, Personal Income and Personal Spending on the Calendar.

Core PCE is expected at 3% and month over month is expected at .2%. Those seem reasonable and the Fed will take notice of those reports at its meeting next Tuesday/Wednesday. If the data is weak, we could see some outsized reaction the same will be true if the data is stronger.

One quick hit to share…

This is how the supposedly nonpartisan Fed can/will/does impact politics…

The Fed Risks Getting Caught Up in Politics, Whatever It Does

The problem with being independent of politics is that appearances matter. You don’t have to just be independent; you must also appear to be independent—even if that changes what you might otherwise do. Many investors think the Federal Reserve might be pushed to do exactly that, lowering interest rates in March to get the rate-cutting cycle started before the election campaigns really get going…

Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!!!