Good Wednesday Am (starting to rethink if Wednesdays are the best day of the week),
The 10-yr spiked all the way up this morning to 4.6.
This goes all the way back to like 2007. If we can’t hold this level, this is like a very, very good chance at running up to 4.90 which is unbelievable. We’ve seen a 50-basis point run since September 5th. Just unbelievable and there’s really nothing on the horizon that I see to stop it at this point. The market is just completely out of whack. We’re so far into the overbought territory, which can be good, but markets can stay overbought for an extended period.
The rest of the week gets really important mostly on Friday. These are the most important numbers that we’ll see all month. Not too much tomorrow. That’s going to be groundbreaking unless there’s some. Huge revision to GDP. So it’s really going to be all about Friday. Maybe we get some unbelievably tame spending and income and price numbers, and we can stop this blood flow and get a bounce.
No joy in Mudville today.
On the impending government shutdown, Federal Reserve officials are walking a tightrope to tame inflation without creating a needlessly severe economic slowdown. If that isn’t tricky enough, they might have to do it blindfolded if there is an extended government shutdown. If Congress doesn’t pass a stopgap funding measure before Sunday, a shutdown of certain agencies could delay the routine release of fresh economic data on wages, employment, inflation and output, impact our credit rating (again) and create more inflationary pressure (not exactly what we need at this point).
Please remain safe and stay healthy!