Good Tuesday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Is it already too late to wish a Happy New Year?

Bonds are having a rough day.

The data was stronger than expected with the JOLTS report showing more than 8mm jobs are available (400k new jobs available than expected). ISM came in stronger than expected showing the economy is growing. President Trump out on Truth Social this am saying the forthcoming tariffs will be broad based. So yes, the bond market is having a rough day.

The 10yr note is at 4.68%.

Amazing that the Fed has cut the Fed funds rate by 100bps and the 10yr yield is up 100bps in the same time. The only positive thing to say is that bond prices are now several standard deviations away from the norma and that gap will close. It is always all about timing.

Interesting stat from Dr. Elliott Eisenberg.

From 1999-2007, median family wealth was $50,000. From 2008 through 2014 it doubled to $100,000, where it remained through 2018. From 2019 through 2022 it vacillated substantially but nonetheless rose to $125,000. However, starting in 2023 through the end of 2024, because of rising home prices and stellar equity gains, median wealth doubled to $250,000, a major reason why consumer spending is so strong. Going forward, equities increasingly matter.

Stay safe and make today great!!!