Good morning on this first Monday of 2025 from your hometown lender,
First, wishing you a very healthy and prosperous 2025. I read a great mathematical anomaly about 2025 (I geek out on these things)…
Happy 45²! Yes, 2025 = 45² is a “perfect square” year, and is represented by the square of the sum of all the digits: (0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9)² = 2025. It also represents the sum of the cubes of all the digits: 0³ + 1³ + 2³ + 3³ + 4³ + 5³ + 6³ + 7³ + 8³ + 9³ = 2025
Markets are starting off toward the upside today.
Hopes of a new year with lower rates abound. That has not worked out well for the bond market over the last two years. Think about that the 10yr note was 100bps lower than where it is now in September before the Fed started cutting. The Fed has cut 100 bps since then. That is all about concern over the incoming administrations’ expected policies. Ex Fed Chairman Bernanke came out with commentary that supported President Trump saying his policies would not change the inflation path. I would expect markets to trade on that and we could see rates improve. I think cautious optimism is the best way forward.
This is the first full week of the year and with that, we will have a lot of data to digest.
The main event is the US jobs report on Friday and there are lots of smaller but also important reports between now and then. It’s predicted to show companies tempered their hiring last month with payrolls increasing 160,000. That would put average monthly job growth near 180,000 for 2024 — lower than the prior three years but consistent with a firm labor market.
On Wednesday, the Fed publishes the minutes of its December meeting. In Canada, jobs data for December will be also be released on Friday. A trade report on Tuesday will show whether Canada’s economy remains in a deficit with the world, despite a surplus with the US that’s a source of ire for President-elect Donald Trump.
Today, on January 6th, Congress certified the election and confirmed Mr. Trump as the next president.
Stay safe and make today great!!!
