Good Friday AM from your Hometown Lender,

Rate sheets today will improve a bit, as bonds react positively to this morning’s BLS jobs data. We got a bit of a “relief rally” this morning in bonds but with some semi-hawkish comments from a few Fed members, the rally could dry up as the day goes on. Based on the current technical picture and just that markets are now pricing in an 85% chance of a Fed rate cut in two weeks, it is a good time to lock most loans.

Further improvement is possible, it’s just not probable.

November’s data came in with more new jobs created than expected (227k vs 214k expected) although the unemployment rate crept higher to 4.2% on more people entering the workforce (the more reliable U6 real unemployment is back close to 8%). The revisions to last month’s horrible jobs data were a concern but as the 12k report was only revised to 36k, there was no issue there. All in all, the report was more helpful than hurtful, and we are seeing the 10yr note yield making progress into the next lower trading channel.

Fingers crossed, but unless CPI and PPI come in very low next week, I don’t know how much more improvement in rates we will see in the short term. Markets are already pricing in the next few Fed rate cuts so unless we get news of less inflationary policies, a new war, or another shock to the system, we may be in this range for a while.

Stay safe, enjoy the weekend, and first, make today great!!!