Good Thursday Morning from your Hometown Lender,

We had a spate of data today which was largely weaker than expected. Unemployment claims and job cuts both came in higher than forecasted. Despite the weaker data, bonds are not reacting much. I am sure Chairman Powell’s recent comments that the economy is doing fine and that the Fed can be patient, has put traders in a wait and see mode before buying more bonds. That “wait and see” starts with tomorrow’s big daddy jobs report. If it comes in below consensus of 185k new jobs (or if there are positive revisions to last month’s report of 12k), bonds will take a hit. Conversely, I am not sure a weak report will do much to improve pricing. We are at 4.19% on the 10-yr which is right at resistance. We would need to close below it to open the next channel down. I don’t think floating into tomorrow is a great choice.

Yesterday, Chairman Powell also made a quasi-endorsement for Bitcoin calling it an asset class competing with Gold.

Between that, and with President Elect Trump selecting Paul Atkins, a pro-crypto regulator, to head the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time, bringing gains since the November election to 50%. Atkins will replace Gary Gensler, who attracted the ire of crypto enthusiasts for cracking down on digital assets. A price of $100,000 means the market value of all Bitcoin in circulation is just shy of $2 trillion, a sum larger than most of the world’s publicly traded companies.

And Dr. Elliott Eisenberg shared that 61% of the price of a new home is construction, including labor.

Of the 61%, 56% (or 34% of the total price) is wages/salaries and 44% (or 27% of the price) is material. 7.3% of materials (or 2% of the total price) are imported. A median new home price of $440,000 means $9,000 in imported materials. Assuming a 30% tariff, that means new home prices rise by, at most, $3,000. Buy now.

Stay safe and make today great!!!