Good Friday AM from your Hometown lender,

Rate sheets today may slip a bit after improving yesterday and reprice risk on the day is moderate.

It’s a weird time for markets. Yesterday’s CPI report was low but not as low as markets expected. Today’s PPI was low, and lower than markets expected, but we are seeing bonds pull back a bit. The 10-yr note is at 4.08% and has run up to resistance of 4.11% a few times and that it has been rejected is a good sign. Maybe we now get to work back down that trading channel to a 3 handle. If so, mortgage rates will improve along with the 10-yr note.

Rates are trying to find a foothold after being blown out of the water last week but will likely slip a bit today and could get slightly worse heading into next week. Most of the damage is already done, after the huge pivot we saw in markets after last week’s jobs data, but rates may still slip just a bit more after getting no help this week from either consumer or wholesale inflation data.

Most of the Fed members out speaking this week were unfazed by the inflation data, as the focus of the Fed now is almost all on the labor market. That’s why we aren’t likely to see any real improvement in rates possible until the next big labor report November 1st.

Before the jobs report on October 4th, many were forecasting, rather hoping, for clear sailing for rates because markets were firmly speculating more rate cuts from the Fed, with at least one more half point cut by the end of the year. Traders totally rolled over and gave up on that after the staggering strength of the BLS jobs report and the drop in unemployment, and we saw mortgage rates jump an average of .375 across the board.

This week rates have struggled not to move worse and have for the most part held steady, but don’t look stable yet.

The big takeaway here is that we won’t see rates fall again until and unless we get some weak economic data, and the next jobs report comes in much worse showing the September data was an anomaly. That’s tough to bet on, so don’t get caught chasing rates, especially for loans that close in October.

Stay safe, enjoy the weekend and first, make today great!!!