Good Friday AM from your Hometown Lender,

There is a donut on the economic calendar today.

That does not often happen. No news at all. Bonds are doing a bit better with the 10-year note yield at 3.94%. It is important that we hit and held the psychological and 20-day moving average of 4%. If we had closed above that, we could have seen the yield move to 4.11%. Instead, we are in a downward rate push and I think we settle down in the high 3.80s. Suppose we have some favorable data next week (which is counterintuitive as favorable data will show a slowing economy which is not a great thing in the overall picture). In that case, we should see rates make lows again as they did early this week. The top three reports on the schedule are CPI, PPI, and retail sales.

More wealth is made in real estate. The housing market nears a $50T valuation milestone.

Dr. Elliott Eisenberg is really good at dropping some knowledge.

He shared that Markets are implying an 80% chance of a 50bps September cut. Great news, right? Maybe not. On 1/3/2001, the Fed began with a 50bps rate cut and a recession came in March. On 9/18/07, the Fed also began with a 50bps cut and in December a recession commenced. Both times equities jumped and headlines praised the Fed. In the 2001/02 recession equities fell 42%, in the 2008/09 recession, 50%.

Stay safe, enjoy the back to school weekend, and make today great!