Good Thursday AM,
The fickleness of trading comes into focus. We would all hope and expect that trading is based on data however, that is correct only some of the time. Bonds are on fire (that’s a good thing) despite the data being about as unfriendly for bonds as possible. The news today should have sent bonds plummeting. Retail Sales (+9.8%), Jobless Claims (down to 576k from 700+ last week) and some manufacturing numbers all slaughtered expectations. Despite the data, the 10-yr note has somehow found its way to 1.55%, which takes us back to late January. This is clearly a 100% a technical move where the bond shorts are squeezed and have to cover. Let’s hope we continue to hold these gains so we can close above some pretty important barriers (the 50-day moving average for one) as it could lead to more short covering and drive the 10-yr below 1.50% (hey, a guy can dream). Please stay alert… if we leak into the close, this could all be a head fake.
Please remain safe and healthy, make today great!