Market Snapshot November 22, 2019
Good Morning on this fantastic Friday,
Today consumer confidence rose unexpectedly and of course for no good reason. This is reminiscent of dare I say 2007, just before the crash, when consumer confidence kept rising without data to back it up. Anyway, the higher confidence number combined with the Dow up almost 100 points, provides downside risk for bond prices. With that, bonds are up slightly on the day but down slightly from yesterday’s close. Once again we tried and failed to break above resistance. We also tried to break below support but quickly bounced back. This morning we opened right on top of support, but it’s too soon to say if we will hold. The current apparent trading range is too narrow and leads me to believe something has to give.
Here is the skinny, historically bonds head into a consolidation pattern (rates tick higher) heading into the holidays. I would feel good about locking now and then floating down in December if rates improve. I believe they will improve, but it just may take a bit.
Enjoy the weekend but first make today great!