Market Snapshot March 12, 2019
Good Afternoon on this fine Tuesday,
My apology for the late start however, it is nice being able to look back on the market once in a while vs guessing on what might happen. I think I could be right at least 50% of the time with this strategy. Bonds had a great day. The 10-yr down to 2.61% and mortgage bonds +17bps. We are close to seeing some float down opportunities so keep an eye on them. I can’t say what will happen manana but it’s probably worth waiting to see before locking.
Matt Graham has a pretty good handle on today’s activity.
There were three salient market movers for the bond market today with one of them being a 2-parter.
First up was Brexit news in the overnight session. This began with a compromise deal looking more possible early on. The result was a move toward higher yields early in the overnight session (compromise + deal = soothing to market uncertainties = bad for bonds). By the time the sun was up in New York, the British Attorney General had thrown cold water on the deal and bonds were starting to recover.
The recovery was bigger in Europe vs the US and most noticeable in British currency. US bonds were able to catch up with the rally after weaker-than-expected inflation data (CPI) at 8:30am ET. This took bonds easily into positive territory where they remained for the rest of the day.
After fairly flat trading through the morning hours, a strong 10-yr Treasury auction sent bonds on their next leg of the rally in fairly short order.
All told, yields dropped more than 4bps and Fannie 3.5 MBS gained more than a quarter of a point. Both sides of the bond market were already close to their best levels in well over a year, and both were already pushing the stronger end of their recent range boundaries.
The additional gains mean that both MBS and Treasuries are breaking out of those ranges today and will be seeking “confirmation” tomorrow–something that could be facilitated by weaker-than-expected Durable Goods data. On the other hand, if data is strong and British politicians start talking about compromises, we could see a quick bounce back into the range–just like the one that happened on the other side of the range at the beginning of last week.
Make the rest of the day great!