Market Snapshot July 11, 2018
Good Morning on this fantastic Wednesday (have I mentioned it is the best day of the week?),
Stocks in the red and bonds are under pressure as well. The bond picture is not really as bad as it looks, as today is rollover day so the first drop of 15bps are a wash and we start counting from there. So the -17bps current print is really -2bps in real terms. The 10-yr is at 2.85% (a familiar place and smack in the middle of the 2.80%/2.90% range). Yes, the doldrums. Despite more Tariffs, Mr. Trump calling out Germany for being Russia’s puppet at the NATO meeting, and PPI as well as wholesale inventories coming in hotter across the board (think inflation), the bond market is not moving much. Later today we have a 10-yr Treasury auction which could certainly impact rates (yesterday’s 3-yr auction was dismal) and tomorrow we have CPI. Yes, I know we are in the middle of the trading range and not much has inspired movement, but I am a bit curious about tomorrow. This could easily be a set up for a sell off and the 10-yr jumping 10bps. I don’t see the other direction as equally likely so I would be defensive here.
Make today great!