Market Snapshot May 8, 2018

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Good Tuesday AM,


Yesterday was better for the bond market. Bonds opened in the red and have kept sliding. The 10-yr is up to 2.98% and mortgage bonds are -22bps. The economic data today was positive but not market driving. Bonds are currently trading in a range. After the 10-yr was unable to break through 2.95% it will likely leak higher to 3%. The positive spin is that minor movements within a range aren’t  problematic, it is what happens when you get to the top or the bottom of the range that matters. Still the same recommendation to lock and float down on any improvement.


Lots of data this week still to come. Tomorrow we have PPI info and Thursday is CPI but before both, we do have Mr. Trump speaking on his decision whether or not to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Arms deal today at 11 a.m. The odds favor the US will withdraw and impose sanctions on Iran. Let’s see how it comes together and what the sanctions are despite Oil being down a bit today… Real sanctions would likely cause a decrease in oil production, an increase in oil prices, and could be negative for bonds (higher oil is inflationary). That said, there are lots of moving parts here.


Eric Schneiderman the (now former) NY AG resigned after a story linked him to physically abusing four women. That NY AG job can be a glass house. Schneiderman has successfully sued a substantial number of people/entities including $25 million from Trump University.


Just a reminder that because of improved standards for utilizing new and existing public records, the three major credit reporting companies are now excluding all tax liens from credit reports. That means some scores will head higher. The new rules come following a study by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that found problems with credit reporting and recommended changes to help consumers. Incorrect information on a credit report is the top issue reported by consumers, according to the bureau. Last July, credit reporting companies removed nearly 100 percent of civil judgment data and about 50 percent of tax lien data from credit reports. Effective mid-April, the rest has been removed. LexisNexis Risk Solutions predicts that about 11 percent of the population will have a judgment or lien removed from their credit file, according to the company’s own estimate. Once that information is stripped out, credit scores may go up by as much as 30 points overall.


Make today great!